we are making a big mistake. if we think there is one, universal model of western democracy that at some point between now and 2050, if you think that is what the future of the world is going to look like, you are going to be one very disappointed person. the chances of western-style democracy emerging in any of these countries has to be between 0 and 5% at best. the possibility of alternative models is something that was raised by david wright at the begin -- at the beginning in his opening remarks. i want you to think seriously about what it implies. singapore is not worrying about the jasmine revolution. singapore is the model. think of china as a giant, technocratic singapore in which the one-party state evolves itself in ways to avoid the collapse of the soviet experience. the second point, and this is where differ, it is precisely when nations are struggling with problems of internal political reform and challenges from below that they are most likely to pursue a more selfish and aggressive foreign policy.